Solana's Yakovenko: Bitcoin Needs Quantum Defense by 2030

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has issued a stark warning to the Bitcoin community: prepare for quantum computing now, or risk obsolescence. He believes Bitcoin developers must act proactively to defend against a possible quantum computing breakthrough.

Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: A Race Against Time?

Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko estimated a 50% chance that quantum computers will be capable of breaking Bitcoin's cryptographic defenses within five years.

"We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme," he urged.

The core concern revolves around the potential for quantum computers to run algorithms like Shor’s, which could compromise the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) that safeguards Bitcoin private keys. This would enable malicious actors to forge transactions and seize control of wallets, posing a significant threat to the network's integrity. For projects concerned about cryptographic security, platforms like Codeum offer security audits to identify vulnerabilities.

Bitcoin Community Divided on Urgency

Implementing such a change within Bitcoin's framework presents substantial hurdles. A migration to post-quantum cryptography would necessitate a hard fork, a complex and contentious process requiring broad consensus across the network and sacrificing backward compatibility.

While Yakovenko emphasizes the urgency of the situation, some members of the Bitcoin community remain unconvinced of the imminent threat.

Counterarguments from Bitcoin Experts:

• Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, suggests that quantum computing technology is still relatively distant, and making Bitcoin quantum-resistant is “relatively simple.”
• Bitcoin Core contributor Peter Todd has stated that fully functional quantum computers “don’t exist” yet.
• Luke Dashjr, another Bitcoin Core contributor, considers spam and developer corruption to be more pressing concerns for Bitcoin than quantum computing at present.

Yakovenko counters that the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence demonstrate how quickly theoretical breakthroughs can translate into real-world applications. He suggests that the moment major tech companies like Apple or Google deploy quantum-safe cryptographic stacks, “it’s time to migrate” Bitcoin.