Dogecoin Price: Will DOGE Bounce to $0.25, or Break Lower?
Dogecoin (DOGE) Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Dogecoin's recent surge has brought it back to the $0.19 support level, fueling hopes for a rally toward $0.25. However, rising long liquidations suggest potential weakness. Let's examine the critical factors that could determine DOGE's next move.
After reclaiming the $0.19 mark, DOGE's upward momentum was supported by increased volume and bullish market participation. At press time, DOGE traded at $0.1916, down 7.85% on the day, but still above the ascending support line. This $0.19 zone is now pivotal: a sustained break below could lead to further selling, while a bounce could reinforce the bullish outlook and pave the way for $0.25.
The Bullish Outlook for DOGE
Speculative interest in DOGE has surged. Options volume jumped by 1546%, and Open Interest increased by 229%, reaching $2.2 million. These spikes often signal traders preparing for increased volatility, typically to the upside.
Supporting this, the OI-Weighted Funding Rate stood at +0.00999% as of July 15th, confirming that long positions are still paying to hold. The derivatives market leans bullish, but this sentiment could quickly shift if DOGE falls below $0.19.
Technical Analysis: Ascending Support and RSI
DOGE has consistently respected the ascending support trendline formed since mid-June. Multiple bounces off this line indicate traders are closely monitoring it.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, just below the overbought threshold, suggesting growing bullish momentum without exhaustion. If the trendline holds and the RSI continues upward, a push toward the $0.25 resistance is possible. However, a bearish divergence or a break below the trendline could invalidate this short-term bullish view.
Long/Short Ratio: Confidence or Risk?
On Binance, long accounts represent 75.73% of all DOGE positions. The Long/Short Ratio is 3.12, showing a strong bias toward the upside.
This can be risky. While it reflects confidence, an overextended long trade increases the risk of liquidation if prices decline. Latecomers to the trend could face significant losses if $0.19 support fails.
Long Liquidations: A Warning Sign?
Despite the bullish sentiment, long traders are incurring significant losses. On July 15th, long liquidations totaled $3.53 million, while short liquidations were only $296K.
This disparity suggests that leveraged long positions are being wiped out as DOGE struggles above $0.20. This pattern reveals a growing vulnerability as traders using high leverage fail to sustain upward momentum. A break below $0.19 could trigger more liquidations, intensifying selling pressure.
Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Dogecoin
DOGE is at a crucial point. While derivatives activity and the ascending technical structure favor bulls, rising long liquidations highlight market fragility. Holding $0.19 could revive momentum toward $0.25. However, a break below this level would likely cause more pain for over-leveraged longs and delay any potential breakout.