Bitcoin Bulls Eye New Highs: 70% Rally Chance?
Bitcoin Primed for Potential Breakout to New Highs
Bitcoin (BTC) is gearing up for a potential surge, with analysts estimating a 70% probability of the cryptocurrency reaching new all-time highs within the next two weeks. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. indicates balanced market conditions, setting the stage for an upward move.
Key Factors Driving Optimism:
- High Probability: Analysts see a 70% chance of Bitcoin achieving new highs in the coming weeks.
- Bullish Indicators: Strong spot ETF inflows and futures premiums support a positive outlook.
- Potential Pullback: Internal liquidity near $113,000-$114,000 could trigger a brief dip before the anticipated breakout.
Adler Jr. notes that Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores for both 155-day and 365-day cohorts are near zero, signaling a market that isn't excessively overbought or sold. Currently, BTC is trading just above the STH realized price, suggesting a consolidation period of one to two weeks before a possible breakout. He also pointed to seasonal trends, stating “Uptober incoming.”
Derivatives data supports the bullish outlook, with Bitcoin futures consistently trading at a premium to spot prices. The seven-day basis running above the 30-day basis is typically associated with bullish trends. Adler Jr. noted minor overheating ahead of the recent FOMC event, where the cost basis increased on light volume, suggesting late-stage positioning.
The primary scenario leans towards strength. “There’s a 70% chance the next two weeks will see a stepwise uptrend or sideways consolidation,” Adler Jr. stated.
Institutional Demand Remains Strong
Institutional demand is a significant factor, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $2.8 billion in net inflows since Sept. 9, pushing activity into positive territory. These inflows, coupled with supportive technical indicators, have traders preparing for a potentially crucial phase in Bitcoin's bullish trajectory.
Will Bitcoin Dip Before Surging to $124,000?
Bitcoin has increased by 8.5% this month, rising from $107,000 to $117,800 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. This rally has created internal liquidity pockets, raising the possibility of a short-term pullback. September's historical bearish seasonality further supports this scenario.
However, Bitcoin's behavior in 2025 has frequently defied retracement expectations. The asset has often bypassed internal liquidity levels, moving between external liquidity zones. A similar occurrence in July saw BTC skip liquidity near $105,000 and rapidly surge to new highs after confirming a daily break of structure (BOS).
A similar setup is now emerging. If Bitcoin achieves a daily close above $117,500, it would confirm another BOS, reducing the likelihood of a dip below $114,000. This aligns with Axel Adler Jr.’s projection of new all-time highs within the next two weeks.
While a retest of order blocks near $113,000–$114,000 remains possible, improving macroeconomic conditions and growing ETF inflows suggest buyers might intervene earlier, limiting downside risks. The balance between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum will likely determine whether Bitcoin pauses or directly breaks toward $124,000.