Bitcoin Faces Pressure: On-Chain Activity Weakens

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a bounce from Asian session lows near $108,760, climbing above $110,000. However, a sustained recovery appears unlikely. On-chain data suggests weakening network adoption is contributing to the price pressure.

According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, "The price momentum is weakening with the RSI close to the oversold zone and a bearish MACD. The Spot CVD at –$199 million indicates seller dominance, with spot volume signaling a lack of demand. Daily Active Addresses fell to 692K (below the low band), signaling weaker network participation."

The broader crypto market remains under pressure. The CoinDesk 20 and CoinDesk 80 indices are down 2% and 1.7% respectively over the past 24 hours.

Derivatives Market Overview

• Leveraged crypto traders have experienced significant losses. Futures positions worth $940 million were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with over $800 million in long positions betting on price increases. Ether (ETH) liquidations accounted for $320 million of the total.
• Overall open interest (OI) in BTC remains high, near lifetime peaks above 740K BTC. Ether's OI has decreased slightly from 14.60 million ETH to 14 million ETH.
• OI in SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, and LINK has also decreased in the past 24 hours, signaling net capital outflows.
• Funding rates for most major tokens, excluding SHIB, ADA, and SOL, remain positive, suggesting a bullish sentiment overall.
• CME-listed standard BTC futures OI has fallen back to 137.3K from 145.2K, reversing a minor bounce from earlier this month, suggesting low institutional interest. Options OI has continued to increase, reaching its highest level since late May.
• CME’s ether futures OI remains elevated at 2.05 million ETH, close to the record 2.15 million ETH on August 22. Ether options OI is at its highest since September of last year.
• Deribit data indicates a bias towards BTC puts for the upcoming multi-billion dollar expiry on Friday, suggesting concerns about further price declines. The ether expiry presents a more balanced view.
• OTC desk Paradigm reports mixed flows, featuring strategies such as outright put buying and put spreads in BTC, as well as calls and risk reversals in ETH.

NFT Market Update

• Blue-chip NFT collections experienced substantial weekly losses as ether (ETH) retreated from record highs. Most top projects saw their values decline by more than 10%.
• Pudgy Penguins, the collection with the highest trading volume, dropped 17% to a floor of 10.32 ETH.
• Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) fell 14.7% to 9.59 ETH, while Doodles saw a sharper correction, dropping 18.9% to 0.73 ETH.
• Secondary projects also declined: Moonbirds fell 10.5%, and Lil Pudgys shed 14.6%.
• CryptoPunks were the most resilient, losing only 1.35% over the week.
• Despite the lower floors, trading activity remained high. Pudgy Penguins saw 2,112 ETH ($9.36 million) in weekly volume, followed by Moonbirds (1,979 ETH), CryptoPunks (1,879 ETH), and BAYC (809 ETH).
• Overall NFT market capitalization shrank nearly 5% to $7.7 billion, down from a peak of $9.3 billion on August 13.
• The resilience of CryptoPunks compared to newer collections strengthens its appeal as a collateral asset.
• The sell-off signals that NFT blue chips remain high-beta ETH proxies.