Bitcoin Set to Outperform Gold by 2026 with 59% Odds on Polymarket
Bitcoin's Potential to Surpass Gold by 2026
According to Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, Bitcoin has a 59% chance of outperforming gold by 2026. This reflects a growing confidence among traders in the digital asset's potential.
Key Insights
- Bitcoin's odds to surpass gold in 2026 have increased to 59% on Polymarket.
- Polymarket allows users to wager on various real-world event outcomes using blockchain technology.
At the start of the year, Bitcoin regained its footing above $90,000, contributing to the increased confidence. However, the cryptocurrency closed 2025 with a 6% decline, contrasting gold's 65% surge, which made it the standout asset of the year, as reported by TradingView.
Despite a strong beginning, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility in 2025, peaking at $126,000 in early October before experiencing a sharp decline due to a lack of new catalysts and fluctuating demand. The rising odds on prediction markets indicate growing trader confidence in Bitcoin's ability to deliver better returns than gold this year.
Some analysts, however, have tempered their short-term expectations. Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity Investments suggests Bitcoin may have completed its halving-cycle bull phase, potentially entering a consolidation period in 2026. Timmer anticipates prices might retreat to the $65,000–$70,000 range, while still seeing long-term growth potential.