Bitcoin's January Prospects: Can It Surge Past $100K or Will It Waver?
As 2026 begins, Bitcoin remains steady at around $88,000, continuing its sideways trend. Despite the stagnant price action, on-chain indicators reveal potential shifts in the market dynamics.
Three metrics from CryptoQuant highlight a reduction in sell pressure, even amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties that limit upward momentum.
Signs of Accumulation Among Long-Term Holders
Bitcoin's price has faced challenges reclaiming crucial resistance levels following a notable decline in late 2025. The absence of substantial buying interest has left market sentiment fragile, with traders seeking confirmation that the recent downturn is over.
The first indicator to note is the long-term holder (LTH) supply data. After months of negative readings, the 30-day net change in LTH supply has shifted positively by approximately 10,700 BTC.
This trend indicates that long-term investors are no longer selling in large volumes. Instead, Bitcoin is being accumulated by stronger hands, a behavior typical during consolidation phases rather than market peaks.
LTH SOPR Reflects Market Stability
The second metric tracks the long-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which measures whether long-term holders are selling at a profit or loss.
Currently, LTH SOPR is close to the neutral 1.0 mark, suggesting long-term holders are neither capitulating nor rushing to sell at losses.
Historically, this stability aligns with markets finding equilibrium post-correction, rather than spiraling into a deeper decline.
Exchange Netflows Indicate Cautious Demand
The third indicator examines Bitcoin exchange netflows. Recent figures show ongoing net outflows, with more BTC exiting exchanges than entering.
This pattern decreases immediate sell-side pressure in spot markets. However, the absence of a price surge suggests demand remains tentative, likely affected by tighter liquidity and uncertainty around US rate cuts.
Will Bitcoin Price Rebound in January?
Overall, the data presents a mixed yet hopeful outlook. While supply-side pressure is lessening and long-term holders remain optimistic, Bitcoin's price is constrained by weak demand and macroeconomic factors. A rapid surge to $100,000 in January would likely need a new catalyst. Without it, Bitcoin might continue consolidating, creating a foundation for a potential stronger recovery later in 2026.